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About the near-future of cars and what that means, part 1

This 2014 prediction has already been surpased by 4-5 years!
This 2014 prediction has already been surpased by 4-5 years!

 

UPDATE, 7.12.2016: VW to compete with Uber and Tesla with their own fleet management company MOIA: https://goo.gl/QSx1Vh

The car will change from a prized posession into a tool. Software will take over, turning car manufacturers into self-driving and self-teaching and learning fleet managers. Consequently, the energy sector will have to change to adapt to rising number of EV and PHEV loads on the network. The internal combustion engines will have to evolve, but not only for personal vehicles, (probably just for the next 20 years), but for base-energy supply from natural gasses. Batteries will become cleaner and more efficient. Last but not least: there will be new taxes related to cars.

Growth of EVs
Growth of EVs

STEP 1: (2018 – 2021)

Car sharing will spread rapidly as automation of driving is more perfected. Large auto manufacturers will start purchasing automation companies and transforming themselves to fleet management companies. Right now, the main reasons for purchasing a personal vehicle include among other, less important things: looks, the way it drives, safety, personal affinity to a brand; As cars will become capable of driving autonomously, the way they feel when driving will become irrelevant. The way how well and fast cars respond to surrounding circumstances however, will matter a lot more. And this depends on the learning algorythms of the car and it’s capability to share information with other vehicles around it. At the fleet company, supercomputers will constantly communicate with cars, who will be monitoring their surroundings and analyzing every square millimeter of the road and sending the results back to the fleet company base.

That’s why the race for satellite internet is on the way. The fleet companies with the most efficient vehicle-to-base and vehicle-to-vehicle communication will accumulate the most of the market for personal and mass transit.

That is also why car manufacturers are already purchasing autonomus driving software and artificial intelligence development companies. In my opinion, we will witness the rise of companies with strong ties to software companies. Tesla on its own (perhaps also with Google, Tomtom and Bosch) by 2018. Chinese Baidu most probably with BYD by 2019. Daimler, Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi with Samsung and Nokia’s precision mapping by 2020. Volvo and Geely with Uber by 2020, GM and Lyft also by 2020. Ford with Velodyne by 2021. Let’s not forget the giants like Google with Bosch and TomTom, and Microsoft and Apple, they will not stay still despite all the latest failures.

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Inner cities will be off limits to vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2020, until then, taxes on ICE’s will be raised to gradually lower their numbers, while increasing the sales of PHEVS and EV’s. While the battery industry is still underdeveloped to fully support it, EV’s will slowly take over.

THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CREATION OF SEVERAL NEW ENERGY-BASED INDUSTRIES, WHICH ARE NOW VERY SMALL: point-of-charge POC) network management companies, energy storage and energy management facilities, which will be based on EV battery recycling and re-use; Because the grid will be overloaded, either parallel renewables grids will be made or vehicle-to-grid networks will be setup, as first intended by Betterplace LLC. Energy quality management will become common-place for every industry to maintain something resembling a sinusodial and constant voltage without interruptions.

Due to more volatile weather, we will need an alternative to base-energy producing facilities like nuclear, coal and gas power plants, and the only way is revolutionizing the current ICE’s and finding a way to chemically clean natural gasses. Currently the best hope is turning natural gases from degrading waste into energy. Currently existing ICE’s are not capable of buring pure natural gases, they need highly flammable additives + they need to be consumed to avoid build-up on the ground, which would cause massive explosions.

 

IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE EFFICIENT AND NATURE-FRIENDLY BATTERIES. By 2020 batteries will become part of new residential buildings. Batteries will most likely be graphene-based and will reach a price of under $50 for 1kWh at 1,25kg of weight. (Currently at 0,4 kWh/ kg)

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